Portfolio Strategy
Target Return
30–80%
Max Drawdown
-40% to -55%
Confidence
55% chance of 30%+ annual return
Time Required
8-12 hrs/week
Recommended Allocation
BTC Spot40%
ETH Spot15%
Basis Trading15%
Options Overlay10%
SOL / High-Beta Alt10%
Cash/Treasuries10%
Expected Returns (12 months)
Bear continues-25% to -50% (20%)
Sideways0% to +15% (30%)
Recovery+30% to +60% (35%)
Strong bull+60% to +150% (15%)
Entry Plan
30%
Week 1: Deploy BTC + ETH core position
At current price
25%
Week 2: Add SOL position + basis trade
If BTC holds $65K+
25%
Week 4: Second tranche of BTC/ETH
If price < $65K, or on confirmed close > $78K
20%
Week 6-8: Options overlay + remaining
As strategies come online
Exit & Risk Rules
🛑 Portfolio down >40%: Reduce all positions by 50%, reassess
💰 At +50% gain: Take 20% off into cash/treasuries
🚀 At +100% gain: Secure original capital in safe assets
⚠️ Exchange issues: Withdraw everything immediately
📉 BTC breaks 200-week MA with volume: Shift to 60%+ cash